Indien September 2018

Growth is even stronger than expected.

Die indische Zentralbank erhöht anfangs August den Reposatz um 25 Basispunkte auf 6,5%. Das ist die zweite Erhöhung innerhalb der letzten drei Monate. Ein Bankangestellter in New Delhi zeigt eine indische 2000 Rupien Note. ZHANG NAIJIE KEYSTONE/XINHUA

Indien hebt sich mit beeindruckenden Fundamentaldaten von anderen Schwellenländern ab. Trotzdem bleiben die Small- und Mid-Caps unter Druck. In Kombination mit der schwächeren Rupie ist der Zeitpunkt für einen Einstieg deshalb aktuell ideal, resümiert Chrys Kamber, Head of Indian Investments, in ihren Insights.

The deterioration of the Turkish economy triggered a risk aversion in global emerging markets. Their currencies came under pressure following the meltdown in Turkish Lira. The Indian rupee hit a record low of 70.9 against the US dollar at the end of August, over concerns that the financial difficulties faced by Turkey would spread to other emerging markets. The recent fall in rupee has given a boost to exports, but the rupee depreciation will nonetheless have an impact on inflation and the current account deficit, as India is a net importer of crude oil. The bright side is that foreign investors are back in the market since July after a continuous sell-off from the beginning of this year.

Robust growth, rising interest rates

India stands out from other emerging markets, due to its impressive fundamentals. The first quarter GDP for fiscal year 2018 grew at 8.2% year-on-year due to higher growth in the financial and real estate sector, supporting the fact that the Indian economy is in its recovery phase. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5%, the second hike within the last three months. Jump in input prices, hike in the minimum selling price and inflationary pressures were the main reasons behind this move. Meanwhile, the RBI maintained its growth forecast for FY19 at 7.4% and retained a neutral stance, where further policy decisions will depend on global conditions.

Ideal time for investments in small and mid-caps

Despite stellar first quarter earnings, small and mid-caps remain under pressure. After a secular three-year outperformance, these companies are going through a healthy correction. The reclassification of the domestic mutual funds, the re-imposition of the long-term capital gain tax and the high valuation premiums incited the consolidation while the large cap index, Nifty is hitting all-time highs in INR terms. A breakdown of the Nifty’s holdings reveals that a significant part of this return has been driven by only a handful of stocks with higher weightage while the rest of the large cap companies are still struggling. The negative global sentiment and the uncertainties around the next general elections are driving market participants to stick to the selected large cap names, hence domestic flows are diverted to large cap strategies. The correction in the small and mid-caps has brought down their valuation premium and with the rupee at all-time low, it is a perfect constellation in buying opportunity for foreign investors.

Padma India Fund slightly behind benchmarks

Im August verzeichnete der Padma India Fund einen Verlust von -1,7% und blieb hinter dem Nifty Small Cap 100 Index (USD) zurück, der -0.8% verlor. Der Large-Cap-Index NSE Nifty 50 beendete den Berichtsmonat mit einer Rendite von -0.5% in USD. Der Industriesektor und zyklische Konsumgüter leisteten einen negativen Beitrag, während die Sektoren Finanzen und Werkstoffe das Portfolio mit positiven Renditen unterstützten. Vinati Organics Ltd. war der größte Outperformer, während KEI Industries Ltd. der Hauptnachzügler war. Aufgrund der hervorragenden Ergebnisse für das 1. Quartal 2019 und der positiven Aussichten für das Geschäftsjahr 2020 ist der Aktienkurs von Vinati Organics Ltd. in diesem Monat deutlich gestiegen. KEI Industries ist einer der führenden Draht- und Kabelhersteller in Indien. Regierungsinitiativen in den Bereichen Infrastruktur und Energie, kombiniert mit Kapazitätserweiterungen, einem großen Händlernetzwerk und einer starken Marke, bringen das Unternehmen in eine gute Position, um von den Chancen im Inland profitieren zu können.

Zum Padma India Fund