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Outlook & Comment HY 2019

A roller coaster ride

The recurring manic-depressive mood swings on the global financial markets over the past year may have made many investors dizzy and evoked memories of roller coaster rides.

To the Editorial

Editorial

The recurring manic-depressive mood swings on the global financial markets over the past year may have made many investors dizzy and evoked memories of roller coaster rides.

Against the backdrop of a global economy in an actually robust condition, negative returns in virtually all asset classes at the end of last year gave us the impression that the overreaction to moderate signs of an economic slowdown were then unjustified. Accordingly, we were confident that there would be positive start to the year, despite our expectation of a more challenging investment environment in 2019. We were nevertheless surprised that this recovery would be marked by a shift from depression to an equally intense manic mood and would be accompanied by positive returns in around 90% of all asset classes.

Against the backdrop of a continued slowdown in the global economy, it is difficult to argue that this recovery, which for a short time even recorded new highs on the global stock markets, is underpinned by a proportional improvement in fundamental data, even if the central banks have made an impressive turnaround and abandoned the path of a gradual normalisation of monetary policy.

At mid-year, the return prospects for the asset classes is even more modest than at the beginning of the year. Therefore, the likelihood that the second half of 2019 could follow in the footsteps of the previous year is significant. Investors are therefore advised to buckle up tightly.

Dr. David-Michael Lincke



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HY 2019

Outlook & Comment

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Dr. David-Michael Lincke

Head of Portfolio Management

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