The Age of Electricity is reshaping the commodity landscape: electrification, grid expansion and energy addition are lifting baseline demand and making supply constraints more visible. Within this regime, precious metals led performance over the past year as fiscal strain, sustained central-bank buying and geopolitical fragmentation reinforced their strategic role. Recent pullbacks reflected positioning and policy expectations more than weakening fundamentals. Dispersion remains key: copper stays supported by electrification and grid capex; oil is soft near term yet faces medium-term balance risk; agriculture looks calmer but remains weather- and policy-sensitive.
Commodities Quarterly Report Q1 2026
Read the reportThe Age of Electricity is raising demand for power, metals and infrastructure – while a fiscally strained, fragmented world keeps a bid under precious metals. Our quarterly report provides performance highlights, sector insights and charts across Energy, Metals and Agriculture – with our key drivers and outlook into the first weeks of 2026.
Spotlights
Gold: Strategic Anchor in an Unstable Macro Regime
Gold cemented its role as the strategic anchor of the precious metals complex after a historic re-rating. Performance was driven by fiscal stress, geopolitical risk and concerns around sovereign debt sustainability. Central-bank demand remained a key structural pillar, while investor interest broadened. The sharp correction in early 2026 reflected crowded positioning and technical factors rather than a weakening of fundamentals. Near term, volatility may remain elevated as positioning normalises after last year’s outsized move.
Copper: The Backbone of Electrification and Energy Addition
Copper entered 2026 with strong momentum, reflecting its central role in electrification, grid expansion and energy infrastructure. Tight balances, thin inventories and recurring mine disruptions have collided with years of underinvestment and declining ore grades, leaving little buffer. While AI and data-centre demand adds a sentiment layer, the core driver remains structural demand from transmission and electrification. Supply growth is constrained by long project timelines, making copper increasingly strategic rather than cyclical.
Crude Oil: Abundant Today, Tighter Tomorrow
Oil markets entered 2026 under pressure from near-term oversupply, with prices weighed down for a third consecutive year. Strong non-OPEC+ supply, resilient U.S. shale production and inventory builds – particularly in China – have muted the impact of geopolitical shocks. Beneath the surface, however, the outlook is shifting: U.S. shale growth shows early signs of slowing, OPEC+ spare capacity is tightening, and longer-dated investment pipelines remain thin. Demand continues to prove more resilient than expected, especially outside the OECD.
The Three Forces
- Power demand is structural – the Age of Electricity lifts the baseline
Gold, Silver & PGMs benefited from sustained central-bank demand, rising fiscal stress and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Recent pullbacks were more positioning/technical than fundamental. - Supply is inelastic – long lead times amplify balance pressure
Years of underinvestment, declining ore grades and long project timelines constrain supply responsiveness. This inelasticity makes markets more sensitive to disruptions and helps explain why select commodities behave increasingly “strategic” — not just cyclical. - Risk premium is back – safe havens benefit in a fragmented macro regime
Gold, silver and PGMs gained from sustained central-bank demand, rising fiscal stress and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Recent pullbacks were more positioning/technical than fundamental. In energy and agriculture, the regime remains volatility-prone: near-term calm can shift quickly when buffers tighten or shocks hit.