1-Year Outperformance Certificate with 125% Participation on Sugar, Coffee & Wheat in USD

Agricultural commodities are back in the market spotlight. After sideways, volatile trading in coffee and the rally already underway in wheat—and now in sugar as well—signs of sustained price momentum are mounting. Alongside rising production costs and a tense geopolitical backdrop, it is above all the El Niño weather pattern, already underway and continuing to intensify, that could become the decisive price driver over the next twelve months.

The US weather agency NOAA officially declared El Niño conditions as early as June 2026, with a 97% probability that the phenomenon will persist into spring 2027—potentially making it one of the strongest since records began in 1950. Historically, comparable weather events have frequently led to crop failures in key growing regions such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and Australia. Sugar is already showing this dynamic concretely: Brazil's exports fell by roughly 600,000 tons in July, Center-South production dropped 26% in June, and Europe's harvest looks set to fall to its lowest level since 2015. At the same time, many market participants currently hold only light positioning in agricultural commodities, meaning even minor supply disruptions could trigger significant price moves.

The Outperformance Note offers investors 125% participation in the upside performance of an equally weighted basket of Sugar, Coffee and Wheat. At the same time, the 70% European barrier on the worst-performing underlying provides a degree of downside protection against moderate market declines, creating an attractive asymmetric risk-return profile.